World

U.S. midterms are Nov. 3: what the vote could mean for Canada’s trade fight

World

U.S. midterms are Nov. 3: what the vote could mean for Canada’s trade fight

Harnaik Singh Rathor

By Harnaik Singh Rathor

Founder & Editor-in-Chief, StudioX News

Americans go to the polls on Tuesday, Nov. 3, in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress and could shape the next phase of the trade war with Canada.

More than 31 million people had already voted early as of Oct. 27, based on data from 47 states and the District of Columbia. Several states, including Georgia and South Carolina, reported heavy early turnout.

Courts weigh last-minute ballot fights

The final week of the campaign has been marked by legal battles over who gets counted.

The U.S. Justice Department sued California and Los Angeles County on Oct. 15. It says it has identified about 20,000 people on California’s voter rolls who are likely non-citizens, and wants their ballots set aside until citizenship is verified. Federal prosecutors argued they are only asking California to follow federal law barring non-citizens from voting.

State and county officials dispute the list. Los Angeles officials told the court that a preliminary review of 200 names found a high percentage who said they were born in the United States. Santa Clara County said it would not comply with a similar federal letter, calling the data flawed.

On Oct. 26, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit declined to order the ballots set aside, saying a lower court had not yet ruled. On Oct. 28, U.S. District Judge David Carter denied the department’s request for a temporary restraining order. He found the government was unlikely to succeed and criticized federal warnings to election workers, writing that “these threats must stop.”

The Justice Department is appealing that order, Bloomberg reported Thursday.

California Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, has accused federal officials of trying to sow distrust in the vote. The Justice Department has also asked Washington state, which borders British Columbia, to set aside ballots from more than 400 people it suspects registered without U.S. citizenship.

Why it matters for Canada

For Canadians, the biggest stakes are economic. U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and autos remain in place, and Canada has answered with dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs.

Talks between the two countries stalled in late August. Global News reported this week that they are now moving quickly at the political level, but sources doubt a deal will be reached before the vote. Reuters has reported the two sides are working on a deal to ease U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and autos.

Prime Minister Mark Carney said Canada is ready to sign an agreement “in the interest of Canadians.” Asked whether he believes President Donald Trump would honour a deal, he said he did not. Trump has told supporters the trade war will end “pretty soon.”

The U.S. ambassador to Canada, Pete Hoekstra, told a closed-door meeting on Tuesday that Ottawa could be blamed if key races go against Republicans, CTV News reported. Industry Minister Mélanie Joly has denied that Canada is meddling in the U.S. vote.

Some tariffs have shifted in recent weeks. Duties on certain Canadian corrugated paper, plastic boxes and farm machinery were lifted, while new ones were added on products such as paints, carpets and vinyl flooring.

What to watch

  • Which party controls the House and Senate after Nov. 3.
  • Whether ballot disputes in California, Washington and elsewhere delay final counts.
  • Whether Canada-U.S. trade talks move to formal negotiations after the vote.

Results in close races may take days to confirm, especially in states that count large numbers of mail-in ballots, such as California and Washington.

Sources: Spectrum News, NBC Bay Area, ABC News, Democracy Docket, Bloomberg, Global News, Reuters, CTV News

Harnaik Singh Rathor

Harnaik Singh Rathor is the Founder, Publisher, and Editor-in-Chief of StudioX News Canada, Canada's multilingual digital news network serving multilingual diaspora communities across Canada. With a background in media production, public relations, and multicultural communications, he founded StudioX Film and TV Corporation to bridge the gap between mainstream Canadian media and the country's diverse immigrant communities. He is a member of the Canadian Association of Journalists (CAJ), RTDNA Canada, CPRS Vancouver, NEPMCC, and the Canadian Freelance Union (Unifor). Based in Surrey, British Columbia. | LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/harnaiksinghrathor/ | Muck Rack: https://muckrack.com/harnaiksinghrathor | Email: editor@studioxnews.ca

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